Further more, quantitative analysis will help any health professional to predict the spread of pandemic as well as suggest how to control it by increasing safety measures to appropriate quantitative levels. Safe and danger zones will also be highlighted after the detailed analysis of model and real data. The main motivation for this research is to explore the data of COVID-19 for four different countries with quantitative parameters. The results will be compared for above-mentioned countries on the base of governmental policies to control coronavirus, weather conditions, new cases, and deaths, etc. In these test problems, we provide complete overview about COVID-19 of Pakistan, Italy, Japan and Spain and also compare respectively the numerical result with the real reported data of virus of these mentioned countries. We use publicly available data about this virus to estimate the parameters. In this research, proposed model is validated by considering four test problems. We conduct detailed analysis of model by using numerical methods as Runge Kutta method of order 4 (RK4) and Euler method, then manifest its applications by publicly reported data of different countries about coronavirus. Here we also introduce “ δ” as a governmental action and restriction against the spread of coronavirus. In this model, we include “ α E”, as transmission coefficient of the exposed cases to susceptible and “ α I”, as transmission coefficient of the infectious cases to susceptible. We also include isolation of peoples due to government action. SEIQR mathematical model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, quarantined, and removed) is proposed in this research, there exists a system of Ordinary Differential Equations. Transmission rate from humans to humans are also included to make it a comprehensive study.
In this research, the effects of governmental action, weather conditions and individual reaction, except all other effects like new births and natural deaths, migration, etc are also included. Few recommendations are also provided by the researchers working in this area to reduce the effects of COVID-19,. Similar studies were also reported in the literature for Turkey, Pakistan and South Africa. Some of the authors also considered isolation and quarantine to reduce the spread of disease. Many other models and solutions based on differential equations are presented in recent literature, ,,. There are many variants of the SEIR and SIR models found in the literature, ,. The paper is based on three ODEs which is called the SIR model. Some investigations on spreading of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in mainland China was useful to understand the outbreak of COVID-19 all over the world, ,. In February and March 2020, some papers about this coronavirus were published, ,. COVID-19 gets the attention of scientists such as mathematicians who worked in mathematical modeling.
Coronavirus is a totally new virus and completely a new situation. However, every situation of disease exhibits it’s own particular biological behaviours and characteristics, the proposed models of diseases will be able to tackle the real situations. Modelling and simulations are very important decision tools that can be helpful to simulate and finally control epidemiological animal and human diseases. Currently, the outbreak of COVID-19 is ongoing and infection cases have been growing and deaths as well. Now on 30 th November 2020 there are 62,516,515 confirmed cases and 1,459,920 deaths in 220 countries or areas. According to WHO at the end of March, there were 754,933 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 36,522 deaths, on 31 th July 2020 there were 17,114,712 confirmed cases and 668,939 deaths in 216 countries or areas. By 1 st March 2020, COVID-19 quickly spread in all the provinces of China and also it spread to 58 different countries. The WHO declared the novel coronavirus as a Global Public Health Emergency on 30 th January 2020. It becomes a global concern in a few weeks. The disease novel coronavirus (COVID-19) started to spread in China and all over the World. At the early stage 55% of first 425 confirmed cases were linked to the Huanan Seafood market, after this it spread from human to human. The World Health Organization (WHO) gives a name to coronavirus as COVID-19.
At the end of 2019, a new type of coronavirus identified in Wuhan, China. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses responsible for respiratory diseases.
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